Why Does Fast Loan Growth Predict Poor Performance for Banks?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Fahlenbrach, Rudiger; Prilmeier, Robert; Stulz, Rene M.
• 署名单位: Swiss Finance Institute (SFI); Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne; Tulane University; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF FINANCIAL STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0893-9454
• DOI: 10.1093/rfs/hhx109
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 1014
• 关键词: consistent covariance-matrix; stock returns; cross-section; credit booms; INVESTMENT; MARKET; hypothesis; leverage; cycles; CRISIS

摘要

From 1973 to 2014, the common stock of U.S. banks with loan growth in the top quartile of banks over a three-year period significantly underperformed the common stock of banks with loan growth in the bottom quartile over the next three years. After the period of high growth, these banks have a lower return on assets and increase their loan loss reserves. The poorer performance of fast-growing banks is not explained by merger activity. The evidence is consistent with banks, analysts, and investors being overoptimistic about the risk of loans extended during bank-level periods of high loan growth.