Credit Allocation Under Economic Stimulus: Evidence from China

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Cong, Lin William; Gao, Haoyu; Ponticelli, Jacopo; Yang, Xiaoguang
• 署名单位: University of Chicago; Renmin University of China; Northwestern University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Chinese Academy of Sciences; Academy of Mathematics & System Sciences, CAS; Chinese Academy of Sciences; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, CAS
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF FINANCIAL STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0893-9454
• DOI: 10.1093/rfs/hhz008
• 发表日期: 2019
• 页码: 3412
• 关键词: job destruction; monetary-policy; BANK; misallocation; PRODUCTIVITY; FIRMS; say

摘要

We study credit allocation across firms and its real effects during China's economic stimulus plan of 2009-2010. We match confidential loan-level data from the nineteen largest Chinese banks with firm-level data on manufacturing firms. We document that the stimulus-driven credit expansion disproportionately favored state-owned firms and firms with a lower average product of capital, reversing the process of capital reallocation toward private firms that characterized China's high growth before 2008. We argue that implicit government guarantees for state-connected firms become more prominent during recessions and can explain this reversal.