Economic Consequences of Housing Speculation

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gao, Zhenyu; Sockin, Michael; Xiong, Wei
• 署名单位: Chinese University of Hong Kong; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF FINANCIAL STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0893-9454
• DOI: 10.1093/rfs/hhaa030
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 5248
• 关键词: household leverage; bubbles; prices; MODEL

摘要

By exploiting variation in state capital gains taxation as an instrument, we analyze the economic consequences of housing speculation during the U.S. housing boom in the 2000s. We find that housing speculation, anchored, in part, on extrapolation of past housing price changes, led not only to greater price appreciation, economic expansions, and housing construction during the boom in 2004-2006 but also to more severe economic downturns during the subsequent bust in 2007-2009. Our analysis supports supply overhang and local household demand as two key channels for transmitting these adverse effects.