Socioeconomic Status and Macroeconomic Expectations

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Das, Sreyoshi; Kuhnen, Camelia M.; Nagel, Stefan
• 署名单位: University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF FINANCIAL STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0893-9454
• DOI: 10.1093/rfs/hhz041
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 395
• 关键词: social-mobility; overconfidence; PARTICIPATION; experiences; INEQUALITY

摘要

We show that individuals' macroeconomic expectations are influenced by their socioeconomic status (SES). People with higher income or higher education are more optimistic about future macroeconomic developments, including business conditions, the national unemployment rate, and stock market returns. The spread in beliefs between high- and low-SES individuals diminishes significantly during recessions. A comparison with professional forecasters and historical data reveals that the beliefs wedge reflects excessive pessimism on the part of low-SES individuals. SES-driven expectations help explain why higher-SES individuals are more inclined to invest in the stock market and more likely to consider purchasing homes, durable goods, or cars.