Capital Flows, Real Estate, and Local Cycles: Evidence from German Cities, Banks, and Firms

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bednarek, Peter; te Kaat, Daniel Marcel; Ma, Chang; Rebucci, Alessandro
• 署名单位: Deutsche Bundesbank; University of Groningen; Fudan University; Johns Hopkins University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF FINANCIAL STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0893-9454
• DOI: 10.1093/rfs/hhab017
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 5077
• 关键词: house prices; liquidation values; shocks; RISK; PRODUCTIVITY; immigration; liquidity; LEVEL; debt; euro

摘要

We study how capital flows affects German cities' GDP growth depending on the state of their real estate markets. Identification exploits a policy framework assigning refugees to cities on a quasi-random basis and variation in nondevelopable area for the construction of an exposure measure to real estate market tightness. We estimate that the most exposed cities to real estate market tightness grew at least 1.9 percentage points more than the least exposed ones, cumulatively, from 2009 to 2014. Capital inflows shift credit to firms with more collateral, which leads firms to hire and invest more in response to these shocks.