How Much Information Is Incorporated into Financial Asset Prices? Experimental Evidence

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Page, Lionel; Siemroth, Christoph
• 署名单位: University of Technology Sydney; University of Essex
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF FINANCIAL STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0893-9454
• DOI: 10.1093/rfs/hhaa143
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 4412
• 关键词: EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS; rational-expectations; prediction markets; aggregation; underreaction; acquisition; revelation; POLICY

摘要

We investigate the informational content of prices in financial asset markets. To do so, we use a large number of market experiments in which the amount of information held by traders is precisely observed. We derive a new method to estimate how much of this information is incorporated into market prices. We find that public information is almost completely reflected in prices but that surprisingly little private information-less than 50%-is incorporated into prices. Our estimates therefore suggest that, while semistrong informational efficiency is consistent with the data, financial market prices may be very far from strong-form efficiency.