Credit Supply and Housing Speculation

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Mian, Atif; Sufi, Amir
• 署名单位: Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF FINANCIAL STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0893-9454
• DOI: 10.1093/rfs/hhab034
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 680
• 关键词: Leverage; BEHAVIOR; bubbles; MARKET; booms; cycle; debt; RISK

摘要

Credit supply expansion boosts housing speculation and amplifies the housing cycle. The surge in private-label mortgage securitization in 2003 fueled a large expansion in mortgage credit supply by lenders financed with noncore deposits. Areas more exposed to these lenders experienced a large relative rise in transaction volume driven by a small group of speculators, and these areas simultaneously witnessed an amplified housing boom and bust. Consistent with the importance of belief heterogeneity, house price growth expectations of marginal buyers rose during the boom, while housing market pessimism among the general population increased.