Measuring the Expected Effects of the Global Tax Reform

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gomez-Cram, Roberto; Olbert, Marcel
• 署名单位: University of London; London Business School
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF FINANCIAL STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0893-9454
• DOI: 10.1093/rfs/hhad038
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 4965
• 关键词: regression-discontinuity designs; high-frequency identification; MARKETS; POLICY; price; location; election; taxation; WEALTH; event

摘要

Over 140 countries agreed on a fundamental corporate tax reform in 2021 to be implemented in 2023 and beyond. To measure its potential effects, we study asset price changes within minutes of the reform announcements. We construct proxies for the reform's costs regarding U.S. companies' tax burdens and countries' public finances. Likely exposed companies exhibit significant negative stock returns. Our lower-bound estimates indicate total shareholder value losses of $112.6 billion one day after the reform announcements. Further, likely exposed countries experience increases in sovereign debt credit risk. Our findings inform the cost-benefit analysis of a historical international tax reform. Authors have furnished an , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.