Exchange Rate Dynamics and Monetary Spillovers with Imperfect Financial Markets

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Akinci, Ozge; Queralto, Albert
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF FINANCIAL STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0893-9454
• DOI: 10.1093/rfs/hhad078
• 发表日期: 2024
• 页码: 309
• 关键词: Capital controls; balance sheets; POLICY; crises; volatility

摘要

We develop a quantitative model with imperfections in domestic and international financial markets that generates strong effects of U.S. monetary policy on emerging markets (EMs). Financial imperfections prevent arbitrage both between local EM lending and borrowing rates, and between local-currency and dollar borrowing rates. An adverse feedback effect between financial health and external conditions amplifies the domestic financial accelerator, leading to large cross-border spillovers of U.S. monetary policy shocks. The model implies a link between uncovered interest parity violations and local credit spreads, a prediction we show the data strongly supports.Authors have furnished an , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.