The Financial Channel of the Exchange Rate and Global Trade

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Ma, Sai; Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF FINANCIAL STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0893-9454
• DOI: 10.1093/rfs/hhaf040
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: us monetary-policy; rate pass-through; INTERNATIONAL-TRADE; shocks; FIRMS; exporters; dollar; transmission; INFORMATION; INVESTMENT

摘要

This paper provides evidence that the U.S. dollar affects trade through a financial channel of the exchange rate. Using global data over three decades, we show that dollar appreciation increases import prices and decreases import quantities for non-U.S. dollar countries. In line with a financial channel, these effects are stronger when the exporting country borrows more in U.S. dollars abroad. The financial channel was active before the global financial crisis, has strengthened since, and operates independently of the dominant currency invoicing channel. Instrumenting the dollar is key to uncovering the full effect of the financial channel.