The Fed and the Secular Decline in Interest Rates

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Hillenbrand, Sebastian
• 署名单位: Harvard University
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF FINANCIAL STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0893-9454
• DOI: 10.1093/rfs/hhae089
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 981
• 关键词: federal-reserve; monetary-policy; natural rate; yield curve; returns; INFORMATION; liquidity; demand

摘要

This paper documents a striking fact: a narrow window around Fed meetings captures the entire secular decline in U.S. Treasury yields. Yield movements outside this window are transitory and wash out over time. This is surprising because the forces behind the secular decline are thought to be independent of monetary policy. Long-term bond yields decline when the Fed cuts the short rate and when the Fed lowers its long-run forecast of the federal funds rate (the dot plot). These results are consistent with the view that Fed announcements provide guidance about the long-run path of interest rates.