A MORE ROBUST DEFINITION OF SUBJECTIVE-PROBABILITY

• 成果类型: Review
• 署名作者: MACHINA, MJ; SCHMEIDLER, D
• 署名单位: Tel Aviv University; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University
• 刊物名称: ECONOMETRICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0012-9682
• DOI: 10.2307/2951565
• 发表日期: 1992
• 页码: 745-780
• 关键词: NON-ADDITIVE PROBABILITIES; expected utility; NORMATIVE THEORIES; SSB UTILITY; uncertainty; DECISION; preferences; CHOICE; RISK

摘要

The goal of choice-theoretic derivations of subjective probability is to separate a decision maker's underlying beliefs (subjective probabilities of events) from their preferences (attitudes toward risk). Classical derivations have all relied upon some form of the Marschak-Samuelson Independence Axiom or the Savage Sure-Thing Principle, which imply that preferences over lotteries conform to the expected utility hypothesis. This paper presents a choice-theoretic derivation of subjective probability, in a Savage-type setting of purely subjective uncertainty, which neither assumes nor implies that the decision maker's preferences over lotteries necessarily conform to the expected utility hypothesis.