Event exchangeability: Probabilistic sophistication without continuity or monotonicity

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Hong, CS; Sagi, JS
• 署名单位: Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; National University of Singapore; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
• 刊物名称: ECONOMETRICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0012-9682
• DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0262.2006.00682.x
• 发表日期: 2006
• 页码: 771-786
• 关键词: subjective-probability; expected utility

摘要

Building on the Ramsey-de Finetti idea of event exchangeability, we derive a characterization of probabilistic sophistication without requiring any of the various versions of monotonicity, continuity, or comparative likelihood assumptions imposed by Savage (1954), Machina and Schrneidler (1992), and Grant (1995). Our characterization identifies a unique and finitely-additive subjective probability measure over an algebra of events.