RISK AND RATIONALITY: UNCOVERING HETEROGENEITY IN PROBABILITY DISTORTION

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bruhin, Adrian; Fehr-Duda, Helga; Epper, Thomas
• 署名单位: University of Zurich; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich
• 刊物名称: ECONOMETRICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0012-9682
• DOI: 10.3982/ECTA7139
• 发表日期: 2010
• 页码: 1375-1412
• 关键词: expected-utility-theory; prospect-theory; limited rationality; preferences; attitudes; DECISION; CHOICE; criterion; aversion; clusters

摘要

It has long been recognized that there is considerable heterogeneity in individual risk taking behavior, but little is known about the distribution of risk taking types. We present a parsimonious characterization of risk taking behavior by estimating a finite mixture model for three different experimental data sets, two Swiss and one Chinese, over a large number of real gains and losses. We find two major types of individuals: In all three data sets, the choices of roughly 80% of the subjects exhibit significant deviations from linear probability weighting of varying strength, consistent with prospect theory. Twenty percent of the subjects weight probabilities near linearly and behave essentially as expected value maximizers. Moreover, individuals are cleanly assigned to one type with probabilities close to unity. The reliability and robustness of our classification suggest using a mix of preference theories in applied economic modeling.