Sentiments

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Angeletos, George-Marios; La'O, Jennifer
• 署名单位: Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago
• 刊物名称: ECONOMETRICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0012-9682
• DOI: 10.3982/ECTA10008
• 发表日期: 2013
• 页码: 739-779
• 关键词: sticky prices; social value; expectations; INFORMATION; forecasts; news

摘要

This paper develops a new theory of fluctuationsone that helps accommodate the notions of animal spirits and market sentiment in unique-equilibrium, rational-expectations, macroeconomic models. To this goal, we limit the communication that is embedded in a neoclassical economy by allowing trading to be random and decentralized. We then show that the business cycle may be driven by a certain type of extrinsic shocks which we call sentiments. These shocks formalize shifts in expectations of economic activity without shifts in the underlying preferences and technologies; they are akin to sunspots, but operate in unique-equilibrium models. We further show how communication may help propagate these shocks in a way that resembles the spread of fads and rumors and that gives rise to boom-and-bust phenomena. We finally illustrate the quantitative potential of our insights within a variant of the RBC model.