PARTIAL AMBIGUITY

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Chew, Soo Hong; Miao, Bin; Zhong, Songfa
• 署名单位: National University of Singapore; Shanghai University of Finance & Economics
• 刊物名称: ECONOMETRICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0012-9682
• DOI: 10.3982/ECTA13239
• 发表日期: 2017
• 页码: 1239-1260
• 关键词: Maxmin expected utility; subjective-probability; Uncertainty aversion; Anticipated utility; independence axiom; decision-making; definition; PARADOX; models; RISK

摘要

We extend Ellsberg's two-urn paradox and propose three symmetric forms of partial ambiguity by limiting the possible compositions in a deck of 100 red and black cards in three ways. Interval ambiguity involves a symmetric range of 50- n to 50+ n red cards. Complementarily, disjoint ambiguity arises from two nonintersecting intervals of 0 to n and 100 - n to 100 red cards. Two-point ambiguity involves n or 100 - n red cards. We investigate experimentally attitudes towards partial ambiguity and the corresponding compound lotteries in which the possible compositions are drawn with equal objective probabilities. This yields three key findings: distinct attitudes towards the three forms of partial ambiguity, significant association across attitudes towards partial ambiguity and compound risk, and source preference between two-point ambiguity and two-point compound risk. Our findings help discriminate among models of ambiguity in the literature.