The Welfare Effects of Encouraging Rural-Urban Migration

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Lagakos, David; Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq; Waugh, Michael E.
• 署名单位: Boston University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Yale University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis
• 刊物名称: ECONOMETRICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0012-9682
• DOI: 10.3982/ECTA15962
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 803-837
• 关键词: aggregate productivity; financial frictions; income; insurance; misallocation; selection; DYNAMICS; IMPACT; CHINA; MODEL

摘要

This paper studies the welfare effects of encouraging rural-urban migration in the developing world. To do so, we build and analyze a dynamic general-equilibrium model of migration that features a rich set of migration motives. We estimate the model to replicate the results of a field experiment that subsidized seasonal migration in rural Bangladesh, leading to significant increases in migration and consumption. We show that the welfare gains from migration subsidies come from providing better insurance for vulnerable rural households rather than from correcting spatial misallocation by relaxing credit constraints for those with high productivity in urban areas that are stuck in rural areas.