Unemployment and Endogenous Reallocation Over the Business Cycle

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos; Visschers, Ludo
• 署名单位: University of Essex; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of Edinburgh; Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
• 刊物名称: ECONOMETRICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0012-9682
• DOI: 10.3982/ECTA12498
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 1119-1153
• 关键词: job mobility; search

摘要

This paper studies the extent to which the cyclicality of occupational mobility shapes that of aggregate unemployment and its duration distribution. We document the relation between workers' occupational mobility and unemployment duration over the long run and business cycle. To interpret this evidence, we develop a multisector business cycle model with heterogenous agents. The model is quantitatively consistent with several important features of the US labor market: procyclical gross and countercyclical net occupational mobility, the large volatility of unemployment and the cyclical properties of the unemployment duration distribution, among many others. Our analysis shows that occupational mobility due to workers' changing career prospects, and not occupation-wide differences, interacts with aggregate conditions to drive the fluctuations of the unemployment duration distribution, and the aggregate unemployment rate.