Rethinking the Welfare State

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Guner, Nezih; Kaygusuz, Remzi; Ventura, Gustavo
• 署名单位: Durham University; Sabanci University; Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe
• 刊物名称: ECONOMETRICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0012-9682
• DOI: 10.3982/ECTA19921
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 2261-2294
• 关键词: tax progressivity; LABOR; income; INEQUALITY; FAMILY; Heterogeneity; marriage; BEHAVIOR; divorce

摘要

The United States spends significant amounts on non-medical transfers for its working-age population in a wide range of programs that support low- and middle-income households. How valuable are these programs for U.S. households? Are there simpler, welfare-improving ways to transfer resources that are supported by a majority? What are the macroeconomic effects of such alternatives? We answer these questions in an equilibrium, life-cycle model with single and married households who face idiosyncratic productivity risk, in the presence of costly children and potential skill losses of females associated with non-participation. Our findings show that a potential revenue-neutral elimination of the welfare state generates large welfare losses in the aggregate, although most households support the move as losses are concentrated among a small group. We find that a Universal Basic Income program does not improve upon the current system. If, instead, per-person transfers are implemented alongside a proportional tax, a Negative Income Tax experiment, it becomes feasible to improve upon the current system. Providing per-person transfers to all households is costly, and reducing tax distortions helps to provide for resources to expand redistribution.