Balance sheet effects, bailout guarantees and financial crises

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Schneider, M; Tornell, A
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6527
• DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-937X.2004.00308.x
• 发表日期: 2004
• 页码: 883-913
• 关键词: emerging markets; banking; MODEL

摘要

This paper provides a model of boom-bust episodes in middle-income countries. It is based on sectoral differences in corporate finance: the nontradables sector is special in that it faces a contract enforceability problem and enjoys bailout guarantees. As a result, currency mismatch and borrowing constraints arise endogenously in that sector. This sectoral asymmetry allows the model to replicate the main features of observed boom-bust episodes. In particular, episodes begin with a lending boom and a real appreciation, peak in a self-fulfilling crisis during which a real depreciation coincides with widespread bankruptcies, and end in a recession and credit crunch. The nontraclables sector accounts for most of the volatility in output and credit.