Asymmetric cycles

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Jovanovic, Boyan
• 署名单位: New York University
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6527
• DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-937X.2006.00372.x
• 发表日期: 2006
• 页码: 145-162
• 关键词: business-cycle; GROWTH

摘要

I estimate a model in which new technology entails random adjustment needs. Rapid adjustments may cause measured productivity to decline. The slow-downs persist because adjustment is costly, and hence protracted. The model explains both the steepness and the deepness asymmetry of cycles. Adjustment costs amount to about 14% of output and technological inefficiency to about 28%. Firms abandon technologies long before they are perfected-current practice total factor productivity (TFP) is 20% below its maximal level.