Heterogeneous Beliefs and Tests of Present Value Models

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Kasa, Kenneth; Walker, Todd B.; Whiteman, Charles H.
• 署名单位: Simon Fraser University; Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6527
• DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdt051
• 发表日期: 2014
• 页码: 1137-1163
• 关键词: rational-expectations; INFORMATION; forecasts; prices; aggregation; BEHAVIOR; traders; others; crises

摘要

This article develops a dynamic asset pricing model with persistent heterogeneous beliefs. The model features competitive traders who receive idiosyncratic signals about an underlying fundamentals process. We adapt Futia's (1981) frequency domain methods to derive conditions on the fundamentals that guarantee non-invertibility of the mapping between observed market data and the underlying shocks to agents' information sets. When these conditions are satisfied, agents remain asymmetrically informed in equilibrium and must 'forecast the forecasts of others'. An econometrician, who incorrectly imposes a homogeneous beliefs equilibrium, will find that the asset price displays violations of variance bounds, predictability of excess returns, and rejections of cross-equation restrictions.