The Industrialization and Economic Development of Russia through the Lens of a Neoclassical Growth Model

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Cheremukhin, Anton; Golosov, Mikhail; Guriev, Sergei; Tsyvinski, Aleh
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas; Princeton University; Institut d'Etudes Politiques Paris (Sciences Po); Yale University
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6527
• DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdw026
• 发表日期: 2017
• 页码: 613-649
• 关键词: structural-change; czarist russia; railroad development; tsarist russia; agriculture; PRODUCTIVITY; TRANSFORMATION; migration; MARKET; RIGHTS

摘要

This article studies the structural transformation of Russia in 1885-1940 from an agrarian to an industrial economy through the lens of a two-sector neoclassical growth model. We construct a data set that covers Tsarist Russia during 1885-1913 and Soviet Union during 1928-1940. We develop a methodology that allows us to identify the types of frictions and economic mechanisms that had the largest quantitative impact on Russian economic development. We find that entry barriers and monopoly power in the non-agricultural sector were the most important reason for Tsarist Russia's failure to industrialize before World War I. Soviet industrial transformation after 1928 was achieved primarily by reducing such frictions, albeit coinciding with a significantly lower performance of productivity in both agricultural and non-agricultural sectors. We find no evidence that Tsarist agricultural institutions were a significant barrier to labour reallocation to manufacturing, or that Big Push mechanisms were a major driver of Soviet growth.