Dutch Disease or Agglomeration? The Local Economic Effects of Natural Resource Booms in Modern America

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Allcott, Hunt; Keniston, Daniel
• 署名单位: New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6527
• DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdx042
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 695-731
• 关键词: gas extraction; labor-market; coal boom; Big push; income; curse; OIL; EMPLOYMENT; abundance; education

摘要

Do natural resources benefit producer economies, or is there a Natural Resource Curse, perhaps as the crowd-out of manufacturing productivity spillovers reduces long-term growth? We combine new data on oil and gas endowments with Census of Manufactures microdata to estimate how oil and gas booms affect local economies in the U.S. Local wages rise during oil and gas booms, but manufacturing is not crowded out-in fact, the sector grows overall, driven by upstream and locally-traded subsectors. Tradable manufacturing subsectors do contract during resource booms, but their productivity is unaffected, so there is no evidence of foregone local learning-by-doing effects. Over the full 1969-2014 sample, a county with one standard deviation additional oil and gas endowment averaged about 1% higher real wages. Overall, the results provide evidence against a Natural Resource Curse within the U.S.