The Macroeconomics of Supply Chain Disruptions

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Acemoglu, Daron; Tahbaz-Salehi, Alireza
• 署名单位: Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Northwestern University
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6527
• DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdae038
• 发表日期: 2024
• 页码: 656-695
• 关键词: production networks; shocks; propagation; origins; inputs; MODEL

摘要

This paper develops a model to study the macroeconomic implications of supply chain disruptions with three key ingredients: (i) a firm-level network of customized supplier-customer links that generate relationship-specific productivity gains; (ii) bargaining over these relationship-specific surpluses; and (iii) an extensive margin of adjustment, whereby firms decide to form or sever relations with suppliers and customers. We establish equilibrium existence and uniqueness, provide characterization results, and present a number of comparative statics that show how supply chains and aggregate output respond to shocks. We also show that equilibrium supply chains are inefficient and exhibit an inherent fragility: small shocks can lead to discontinuous changes in output, even though the efficient allocation is always continuous in the same shocks. We explore several macroeconomic implications of this fragility.