Does Tax-Benefit Linkage Matter for the Incidence of Payroll Taxes?

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Bozio, Antoine; Breda, Thomas; Grenet, Julien; Guillouzouic, Arthur
• 署名单位: Paris School of Economics; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6527
• DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdaf059
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: income-tax; insurance; EMPLOYMENT; wages; GOVERNMENT; ECONOMICS; taxation; HEALTH; REFORM; bears

摘要

We analyse earnings responses to six large payroll tax and income tax reforms in France. Our findings indicate full pass-through to workers when there is a strong and transparent link between contributions and expected benefits. In contrast, employer payroll taxes with no tax-benefit linkage exhibit limited pass-through to workers, while income tax nominally borne by employees show nearly full pass-through. Together with a meta-analysis of the literature, we interpret these results as empirical support for the long-standing hypothesis that tax-benefit linkage matters for the incidence of payroll taxes. In the absence of such linkage, our findings suggest that the individual-level incidence of payroll taxes aligns with their statutory incidence.