Electoral Turnovers

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Marx, Benjamin; Pons, Vincent; Rollet, Vincent
• 署名单位: Boston University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Harvard University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6527
• DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdae108
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 3306-3339
• 关键词: regression discontinuity design; CORRUPTION; WORLD; GROWTH; ACCOUNTABILITY; manipulation; DEMOCRACY; DYNAMICS; outcomes; QUALITY

摘要

In most national elections, voters face a key choice between continuity and change. Electoral turnovers occur when the incumbent candidate or party fails to win reelection. To understand how turnovers affect national outcomes, we study all presidential and parliamentary elections held globally between 1946 and 2018. We document the prevalence of turnovers over time and estimate their effects on economic performance, human development, and the quality of democracy. Using a close-elections regression discontinuity design across countries, we show that turnovers improve several measures of country performance. To explain these positive effects, we explore how electoral turnovers affect leader characteristics, shape policy decisions, reduce perceived corruption, and foster accountability.