Voting on a Trade Agreement: Firm Networks and Attitudes Towards Openness

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Mendez, Esteban; Van Patten, Diana
• 署名单位: Yale University
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6527
• DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdaf005
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: POLITICAL-ECONOMY; INEQUALITY; Heterogeneity; GLOBALIZATION; CONSEQUENCES; preferences; COMPETITION; IMPACT; wages

摘要

We exploit a unique event to study the extent to which popular attitudes towards trade are driven by economic fundamentals. In 2007, Costa Rica put a free trade agreement (FTA) to a national referendum. With a single question on the ballot, 59% of Costa Rican adult citizens cast a vote on whether they wanted an FTA with the U.S. to be ratified or not. We merge disaggregated referendum results, which break new ground on anonymity-compatible voting data, with employer-employee, customs, and firm-to-firm transactions data, and data on household composition and expenditures. We document that a firm's exposure to the FTA, directly and via input-output linkages, significantly influences the voting behaviour of its employees. This effect dominates that of sector-level exposure and is greater for voters aligned with pro-FTA political candidates. We also show that citizens considered the expected decrease in consumer prices when exercising their vote. Overall, economic factors explain 7% of the variation in voting patterns, which cannot be accounted for by non-economic factors such as political ideology, and played a pivotal role in this vote.