Globalization and the Ladder of Development: Pushed to the Top or Held at the Bottom?

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Atkin, David; Costinot, Arnaud; Fukui, Masao
• 署名单位: Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Boston University
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6527
• DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdaf077
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: comparative advantage; TRADE; INNOVATION; GROWTH; QUALITY; COMPETITION; diffusion

摘要

We study the relationship between international trade and development in a model where countries differ in their capability, goods differ in their complexity, and capability growth is a function of a country's pattern of specialization. Theoretically, we show that it is possible for international trade to increase capability growth in all countries and, in turn, to push all countries up the development ladder. This occurs if (i) shifting employment towards more complex sectors raises capability growth and if (ii) foreign competition is tougher in less complex sectors for all countries. Empirically, we provide causal evidence consistent with (i) using the entry of countries into the World Trade Organization as an instrumental variable for other countries' patterns of specialization. The opposite of (ii), however, holds in the data. Through the lens of our model, these two empirical observations imply dynamic welfare losses from trade that are pervasive, albeit small for the median country. The same economic forces also suggest that the emergence of China has held back capability growth for a number of African countries who are pushed away from their most-complex sectors, which China exports, and into their least-complex sectors, which China imports.