Bad Oil, Worse Oil, and Carbon Misallocation

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Coulomb, Renaud; Henriet, Fanny; Reitzmann, Leo
• 署名单位: University of Melbourne; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Aix-Marseille Universite; Paris School of Economics
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6527
• DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdaf018
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: natural-gas flares; CLIMATE-CHANGE; fossil-fuels; market power; social cost; emissions; shale; extraction; methane; opec

摘要

Not all barrels of oil are created equal: their extraction varies in both private cost and carbon intensity. Leveraging a comprehensive micro-dataset on world oil fields, alongside detailed estimates of carbon intensities and private extraction costs, this study quantifies the additional emissions and costs from having extracted the wrong deposits. We do so by comparing historical deposit-level supplies to counterfactuals that factor in pollution costs, while keeping annual global consumption unchanged. Between 1992 and 2018, carbon misallocation amounted to at least 11.00 gigatons of CO2-equivalent (GtCO2eq), incurring an environmental cost evaluated at $2.2 trillion (US$ 2018). This translates into a significant supply-side ecological debt for major producers of high-carbon oil. Looking forward, we estimate the gains from making deposit-level extraction socially optimal at about 9.30 GtCO2eq, valued at $1.9 trillion, along a future aggregate demand pathway coherent with the objective of net-zero emissions in 2050, and document unequal reserve stranding across oil nations.