Efficient Conservation of the Brazilian Amazon: Estimates from a Dynamic Model

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Araujo, Rafael; Costa, Francisco; Sant'Anna, Marcelo
• 署名单位: Getulio Vargas Foundation; Getulio Vargas Foundation
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6527
• DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdaf031
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: climate-change; tropical forests; markets evidence; protected areas; social cost; deforestation; carbon; TRADE; emissions; IMPACT

摘要

This paper estimates the Brazilian Amazon's carbon-efficient forest cover-i.e. when farmers internalize the social cost of carbon. We propose a dynamic discrete choice land-use model and estimate it using a panel of land use and carbon stock of 5.7 billion pixels between 2008 and 2017. The business-as-usual scenario implies an inefficient release of 42 billion tons of CO2 in the long run, resulting from the deforestation of an area twice the size of France. A carbon tax that makes farmers internalize the social cost of carbon would implement the efficient allocation and generate welfare gains exceeding 1.6 trillion dollars. Responses from a carbon tax are highly convex: a carbon tax of only $10/ton would preserve 95% of the efficient carbon stock. An excise tax on cattle ranching, a second-best policy, achieves at most 87% of the first-best welfare gains.