Demand Shocks as Technology Shocks

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Bai, Yan; Rios-Rull, Jose-Victor; Storesletten, Kjetil
• 署名单位: University of Rochester; University of Pennsylvania; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6527
• DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdaf045
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: capacity utilization; business-cycle; INVESTMENT

摘要

We provide a macroeconomic theory where demand for goods has a productive role. A search friction prevents perfect matching between producers and potential customers. Larger demand induces more search, which, in turn, increases GDP and measured total factor productivity (TFP). We embed the product-market friction in a standard neoclassical model and estimate it using Bayesian techniques. Business cycles are driven by preference shocks, true technology shocks, and investment-specific shocks. Preference shocks have qualitatively similar effects as true productivity shocks. These shocks account for a large share of the fluctuations in consumption, GDP, and measured TFP and can be identified using shopping time data.