Does Pricing Carbon Mitigate Climate Change? Firm-Level Evidence from the European Union Emissions Trading System

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Colmer, Jonathan; Martin, Ralf; Muuls, Mirabelle; Wagner, Ulrich J.
• 署名单位: University of Virginia; Imperial College London; European Central Bank; National Bank of Belgium; University of Mannheim
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6527
• DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdae055
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 1625-1660
• 关键词: clean-air act; eu ets; pass-through; COSTS; prices; regulations; EFFICIENCY; pollution; abatement; industry

摘要

In theory, market-based regulatory instruments correct market failures at least cost. However, evidence on their efficacy remains scarce. Using administrative data, we estimate that, on average, the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS)-the world's first and largest market-based climate policy-induced regulated manufacturing firms to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 14-16% with no detectable contractions in economic activity. We find no evidence of outsourcing to unregulated firms or markets; instead, firms made targeted investments, reducing the emissions intensity of production. These results indicate that the EU ETS induced global emissions reductions, a necessary and sufficient condition for mitigating climate change. We show that the absence of any negative economic effects can be rationalized in a model where pricing the externality induces firms to make fixed-cost investments in energy-saving capital that reduce marginal variable costs.