Overconfidence and Prejudice

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Heidhues, Paul; Koszegi, Botond; Strack, Philipp
• 署名单位: Heinrich Heine University Dusseldorf; University of Bonn; Yale University
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6527
• DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdaf048
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: ethnic discrimination; ingroup bias; MODEL; immigrants; attitudes; MARKETS; LESSONS

摘要

We develop a model of multi-dimensional misspecified learning in which an overconfident agent learns about groups in society from observations of his and others' successes. We show that the average person sees his group relative to other groups too positively, and this in-group bias exhibits systematic comparative-statics patterns. First, a person is most likely to have negative opinions about other groups he competes with. Second, while information about another group's achievements does not lower a person's prejudice, information about economic or social forces affecting the group can, and personal contact with group members has a beneficial effect that is larger than in classical settings. Third, the agent's beliefs are subject to bias substitution, whereby forces that decrease his bias regarding one group tend to increase his biases regarding unrelated other groups.