A Dynamic Model of Housing Supply

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Murphy, Alvin
• 署名单位: Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-ECONOMIC POLICY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7731
• DOI: 10.1257/pol.20150297
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 243-267
• 关键词: residential construction; urban-growth; MARKET; INVESTMENT; COSTS

摘要

This paper estimates a dynamic microeconometric model of housing supply. The model features forward-looking landowners who optimally choose both the timing and the nature of construction while taking into account expectations about future prices and costs. The model is estimated using a unique dataset describing individual landowners in the San Francisco Bay Area. Results indicate that geographic and time-series variation in costs are key to understanding where and when construction occurs. Pro-cyclical costs provide an incentive for some landowners to build before price peaks. Results also indicate that landowners actively time the market, which reduces the elasticity of supply.