How Punishment Severity Affects Jury Verdicts: Evidence from Two Natural Experiments

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bindler, Anna; Hjalmarsson, Randi
• 署名单位: University of Gothenburg
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-ECONOMIC POLICY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7731
• DOI: 10.1257/pol.20170214
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 36-78
• 关键词: prosecutorial discretion; sentencing guidelines; racial disparity; Penalty; crime

摘要

This paper studies the effect of punishment severity on jury decision making using archival data from London's Old Bailey Criminal Court from 1772 to 1871. We exploit two natural experiments in English history, resulting in sharp decreases in punishment severity: the offense-specific abolition of capital punishment and the temporary halt of penal transportation during the American Revolution. Using difference-in-differences to study the former and a pre-post design for the latter, we find a large, significant, and permanent impact on jury behavior: juries are more likely to convict overall and across crime categories. Moreover, the effect size differs with defendants' gender.