Terrorism and Voting: The Rise of Right-Wing Populism in Germany

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Sabet, Navid; Liebald, Marius; Friebel, Guido
• 署名单位: Goethe University Frankfurt; Uppsala University; Goethe University Frankfurt; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; IZA Institute Labor Economics
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-ECONOMIC POLICY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7731
• DOI: 10.1257/pol.20230615
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 407-440
• 关键词: Elections

摘要

We document that right-wing terrorism leads to significant increases in vote share for the right-wing, populist AfD (Alternative f & uuml;r Deutschland) party in Germany. To identify causal effects, we exploit quasi-random variation between successful and failed attacks across municipalities. Using the SOEP, a longitudinal panel of individuals, we find successful terror leads individuals to prefer the AfD and worry about migration. Political parties-the AfD in particular- adjust their messaging in election manifestos in response to terror. Overall, and in contrast to previous work, we find terrorism is consequential to the rise of right-wing populism in a Western, multiparty democratic system. (JEL D72, D74, K42)