An economist's guide to lottery design

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Walker, I; Young, J
• 署名单位: University of Warwick
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1111/1468-0297.00668
• 发表日期: 2001
• 页码: F700-F722
• 关键词: Skewness; RISK

摘要

This paper outlines the issues relevant to the design of pari-mutuel lottery games and makes inferences about game design effects from estimates of how rollovers affect sales. Lottery tickets sales depend positively on the proportion of revenue returned as prizes, positively on the skewness of the prize distribution (which depends largely on how much of the prize money goes to the jackpot), and negatively on the variance in the prize distribution (which depends largely on how much goes on smaller prizes). We simulate the effects of envisaged game design changes on sales revenue and find potentially large effects.