Unemployment dynamics in Britain

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Burgess, S; Turon, H
• 署名单位: University of Bristol; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0297.2005.00995.x
• 发表日期: 2005
• 页码: 423-448
• 关键词: equilibrium unemployment; labor-market; duration dependence; job destruction; business cycles; determinants; MODEL

摘要

We examine the inter-related dynamics of the unemployment flows and stock. Our model allows them to be linked through the standard accounting identity, but also through behavioural relationships. We find that, for the UK, the bulk of the correlation between duration and the unemployment stock arises from the dependence of duration on unemployment, taking careful account of the inter-temporal identity. Outflow shocks have contributed little to the evolution of unemployment since the late 1960s. Given that the correlation of duration and unemployment arises from the behavioural relationship, we show that unemployment dynamics arise mostly from shocks to the inflow.