Aggregating disparate estimates of chance

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Osherson, Daniel; Vardi, Moshe Y.
• 署名单位: Princeton University; Rice University
• 刊物名称: GAMES AND ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0899-8256
• DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2006.04.001
• 发表日期: 2006
• 页码: 148-173
• 关键词: aggregation; probability; forecasting; coherence

摘要

We consider a panel of experts asked to assign probabilities to events, both logically simple and complex. The events evaluated by different experts are based on overlapping sets of variables but may otherwise be distinct. The union of all the judgments will likely be probabilistically incoherent. We address the problem of revising the probability estimates of the panel so as to produce a coherent set that best represents the group's expertise. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.