EXPLAINING THE SHAKEOUT PROCESS: A 'SUCCESSIVE SUBMARKETS' MODEL

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Tong, Jian
• 署名单位: University of Southampton
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0297.2009.02252.x
• 发表日期: 2009
• 页码: 950-975
• 关键词: technological-change; firm survival; UNITED-STATES; life-cycle; entry; EVOLUTION; industry; EXIT; oligopoly

摘要

This article explains contemporaneous exit and entry in a new industry with a diffusion process across submarkets. It allows a re-interpretation of the shakeout process in some industries in a novel way. The industry is a collection of initially inactive independent submarkets; the timing of their activation is determined by an exogenous aggregate diffusion process. New submarket opening attracts new entry. However, the post-entry endogenous sunk investment requirement induced by innovations also forces much exit to follow entry. The aggregate market thus has overlapping exit and entry; and has a shakeout if the aggregate diffusion process follows a typical S-shape.