An Overhaul of Doctrine: The Underpinning of UK Inflation Targeting

• 成果类型: Article; Proceedings Paper
• 署名作者: Nelson, Edward
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0297.2009.02278.x
• 发表日期: 2009
• 页码: F333-F368
• 关键词: monetary-policy; rules

摘要

The inflation targeting regime prevailing in the UK is not the result of a change in policy maker objectives. Analysis of UK policymakers' statements demonstrates that objectives have been essentially unchanged over five decades. Instead, the crucial underpinning of UK inflation targeting is an overhaul of doctrine. This overhaul involves changes in policymakers' views regarding key IS and Phillips curve parameters. They particularly have involved whether levels terms (of the real interest rate and the output gap) appear in the curves. Contrary to conventional wisdom, changing views on the expected-inflation term in the Phillips curve do not play a role.