Inflation Target Shocks and Monetary Policy Inertia in the Euro Area

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Feve, Patrick; Matheron, Julien; Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume
• 署名单位: Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics; Universite PSL; Universite Paris-Dauphine
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0297.2009.02332.x
• 发表日期: 2010
• 页码: 1100-1124
• 关键词: bayesian dsge approach; model uncertainty; sticky prices; wide-model; US; persistence; ECONOMY

摘要

The euro area as a whole has experienced a marked downward trend in inflation over the past decades and, concomitantly, a protracted period of depressed activity. Can permanent and gradual shifts in monetary policy be held responsible for these dynamics? To answer this question, we embed serially correlated changes in the inflation target into a DSGE model with real and nominal frictions. The formal Bayesian estimation of the model suggests that gradual changes in the inflation target have played a major role in the euro area business cycle. Counter-factual exercises show that, had monetary policy implemented its new inflation objective at a faster rate, the euro zone would have experienced more sustained growth than it actually did.