The drivers of international migration to the UK: A panel-based Bayesian model averaging approach

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Mitchell, James; Pain, Nigel; Riley, Rebecca
• 署名单位: University of Leicester; Organisation for Economic Co-operation & Development (OECD)
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0297.2011.02459.x
• 发表日期: 2011
• 页码: 1398-1444
• 关键词: economic-theory; selection; determinants; immigration; GROWTH

摘要

A heterogeneous panel-based Bayesian model averaging approach is used to identify the robust economic and policy drivers of international migration to the UK from 14 different source regions over 19802007. Around three-quarters of the increase in net immigration over the last decade, which is particularly pronounced for selected source regions, is associated with structural change, which may be attributed to UK and foreign immigration policy. The remainder of the rise is largely explained by friends and family effects. There are considerable uncertainties associated both with the effects of particular economic drivers of immigration and with forecasts of immigration.