The Timing and Persistence of Fiscal Policy Impacts on Growth: Evidence from OECD Countries

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gemmell, Norman; Kneller, Richard; Sanz, Ismael
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0297.2010.02414.x
• 发表日期: 2011
• 页码: F33-F58
• 关键词: unit-root tests; long-run growth; endogenous growth; panel-data; taxes; DYNAMICS; models

摘要

The literatures testing for aggregate short-run or long-run growth impacts of fiscal policy use quite different methodologies. The former generally focuses on temporary fiscal 'shocks'; the latter typically have no short-run dynamics or assume homogeneity. We use regression methods that treat heterogeneous short-run dynamics explicitly within a long-run model. Results suggest that previously estimated 'long-run' growth effects of fiscal policy are typically achieved quickly, consistent with results from short-run models. In principle these short-run effects 'persist'; in practice regular fiscal policy changes in OECD countries mean that persistent increases or decreases in growth rates are rare.