Imperfect Information, Real-Time Data and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Neri, Stefano; Ropele, Tiziano
• 署名单位: European Central Bank; Bank of Italy
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0297.2011.02488.x
• 发表日期: 2012
• 页码: 651-674
• 关键词: business-cycle; models; equilibrium; variables; output

摘要

An important concern for the European Central Bank (ECB), and all central banks alike, is the necessity of making decisions in real-time under conditions of great uncertainty about the underlying state of the economy. We address this concern by estimating on real-time data a New Keynesian model for the euro area under the assumption of imperfect information. In comparison to models that maintain the assumption of perfect information and are estimated on ex-post revised, we find that: (i) the estimated policy rule becomes more inertial and less aggressive towards inflation; (ii) the ECB faces a more severe trade-off in the stabilisation of inflation and the output gap.