Private Sector Risk and Financial Crises in Emerging Markets

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Daniel, Betty C.
• 署名单位: State University of New York (SUNY) System; University at Albany, SUNY
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0297.2011.02483.x
• 发表日期: 2012
• 页码: 825-847
• 关键词: asian currency; sudden stops; AGENCY COSTS; net worth; MODEL; credit

摘要

Investment necessary for growth is risky and often requires external financing. We present a model in which capital market imperfections separate countries into a safe credit club of industrial countries, with low interest rates and steady credit access and a risky club of emerging markets, with high interest rates and volatile access. In an emerging market, a large negative productivity shock interacts with credit-market imperfections to trigger a severe contraction in external lending. Domestic agents react with widespread default. We calibrate to South Korean parameters and argue that the 1998 financial crisis could have been the downside of risky investment financed in imperfect capital markets.