Counting Chickens when they Hatch: Timing and the Effects of Aid on Growth

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Clemens, Michael A.; Radelet, Steven; Bhavnani, Rikhil R.; Bazzi, Samuel
• 署名单位: United States Agency for International Development (USAID); University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; University of California System; University of California San Diego
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0297.2011.02482.x
• 发表日期: 2012
• 页码: 590-617
• 关键词: foreign-aid; dynamic-models; savings; performance; empirics; policies; IMPACT

摘要

Recent research yields widely divergent estimates of the cross-country relationship between foreign aid receipts and economic growth. We re-analyse data from the three most influential published aidgrowth studies, strictly conserving their regression specifications, with sensible assumptions about the timing of aid effects and without questionable instruments. All three research designs show that increases in aid have been followed on average by increases in investment and growth. The most plausible explanation is that aid causes some degree of growth in recipient countries, although the magnitude of this relationship is modest, varies greatly across recipients and diminishes at high levels of aid.