Animal Spirits, Financial Crises and Persistent Unemployment
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
Farmer, Roger E. A.
署名单位：
University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research
刊物名称：
ECONOMIC JOURNAL
ISSN/ISSBN：
0013-0133
DOI：
10.1111/ecoj.12028
发表日期：
2013
页码：
317-340
关键词：
摘要：
This article uses a rational expectations model with multiple equilibrium unemployment rates to explain financial crises. The model has equilibria where asset prices are unbounded above. I argue that this is an important feature of any rational-agent explanation of a financial crisis, since for the expansion phase of the crisis to be rational, investors must credibly believe that asset prices could keep increasing forever with positive probability. I explain the sudden crash in asset prices that precipitates a financial crisis as a large shock to expectations that leads to a permanent increase in the unemployment rate.