The Impact of Supply Constraints on House Prices in England

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Hilber, Christian A. L.; Vermeulen, Wouter
• 署名单位: University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1111/ecoj.12213
• 发表日期: 2016
• 页码: 358-405
• 关键词: job creation; LAND; RISK; elasticity; schools

摘要

We test the theoretical prediction that house prices respond more strongly to changes in local earnings in places with tight supply constraints using a unique panel dataset of 353 Local Planning Authorities in England between 1974 and 2008. Exploiting exogenous variation from a policy reform, vote shares and historical density to identify the endogenous constraints-measures, we find that: regulatory constraints have a substantive positive impact on the house price-earnings elasticity; the effect of constraints due to scarcity of developable land is largely confined to highly urbanised areas; and uneven topography has a quantitatively less meaningful impact.